A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
